Republicans have all but deleted Democrat’ lead in early voting for the heatedly raced special in Georgia’s 6th congressional district.
There were approximately the same number of Republican and Democrat who voted when early voting purposed on Friday, according to New York Times election expert Nate Cohn.
Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida, came up with similar figures.
The practically even turnout among Democrats and Republican in the district is a major change from the first week of early voting, in which Democrat enjoyed a significant lead.
The makeup of the early voting electorate is a notoriously flawed predictor of general election outcomes. For one thing, Democrat tend to turn out in higher numbers to vote early than on Election Day.
And the lack of party registration in Georgia constructs tea-leaf reading that much harder. To recognize partisans, Cohn and McDonald looked at the last party primary that each of the voters participated in, which may not reflect a consistent party affiliation.
On its face, nonetheless, the surge in Republican early voting is an ominous sign for Democrat. The party’s producing nominee, 30 -year-old documentary filmmaker Jon Ossoff is hoping to walk away with the majority he needs to win outright during the first round of voting this Tuesday, where he is up against multiple nominees from both parties.
If Ossoff fails to receive 50 percent, he will head to a June 20 runoff, where he will likely face a steeper clamber in a head-to-head battle with a Republican. Ossoff currently has the support of 47 percent of the district’s voters, according to a Revily poll conducted from March 10 to 12.
Nate Cohn , nonetheless, highlighted some early voting trends that appear favorable for Ossoff. Infrequent voters, who Ossoff needs to turn out, are voting at approximately the rates they would in higher-turnout midterm elections.
And former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton would have received 57 percent of the district’s vote if members of the general electorate in November had been composed of the individuals who voted early in the special election, according to Cohn.
The national Democratic Party and liberal grassroots groups have run <a href=" ” target= “_blank”> massive resources and energy into Ossoff’s bid. Even Hollywood suns are chipping in, with Samuel L. Jackson taping a radio ad is targeted at becoming out black voters.
Democrats are hoping the Atlanta-area special election will showcase their ability to translate popular backlash to President Donald Trump into victory at the ballot box.
The congressional seat became available when Trump tapped Tom Price to become Secretary of Health and Human Service. While Price won reelection in the district by 23 degrees in November, Trump won it by just 1.5 degrees.